China has collapsed the oil market again

Brent crude oil has been declining for the third session in a row, falling below the important support level of $90 per barrel on Friday. The current Brent quote is $87.83 per barrel, and North American WTI oil is trading near $79.81 per barrel. 

The main pressure on the quotes is exerted by a significant deterioration in the epidemiological situation in China, which has increased market concerns about the prospects for demand for hydrocarbons. Yesterday, the National Health Commission of China reported more than 18 thousand new cases of coronavirus across the country, which is the highest figure since April 2021.

Reacting to the situation in China, OPEC lowered the estimate of oil demand in 2022 by 100 thousand barrels per day – to 99.57 million b/d, in 2023 – also by 100 thousand b/d, to 101.82 million b/d. Experts of the organization also assume that oil consumption in the world will increase by 2.55 million b/d in 2022, and by another 2.24 million b/d in 2023.

An additional factor influencing the dynamics of the oil market was an ambiguous report from the US Department of Energy on crude oil reserves in the country. So, oil reserves last week decreased by 5.4 million barrels at once, while gasoline reserves increased by 2.2 million barrels, and distillates – by 1.12 million barrels.

In addition, oil quotes are also affected by the recovery of the US dollar against the background of the «tough» rhetoric of representatives of the Federal Reserve System. On the eve of the President of the St. Louis Fed, James Bullard, said that the current monetary policy of the regulator is not yet restrictive enough to reduce inflation.