S&P 500: the forecast for 5600 points remains

Analysts maintained an optimistic outlook for the S&P 500 index, expecting it to rise to 5600 points by the end of the year. The strong result of the second quarter, when the profits of S&P 500 companies increased by 10.5% year-on-year, exceeding the forecast of 8.1%, became the basis for such a positive attitude. 

Seven major technology companies contributed significantly to this growth, increasing earnings per share by 38%. It is important to note that the remaining 493 S&P 500 companies also showed positive profit growth, which is the first time in the last six quarters. 

Despite the good performance, profit growth forecasts for the second half of the year were slightly adjusted down to 10% y/y. Analysts note the risks to the market, in particular, rising unemployment and the likelihood of a recession. 

Nevertheless, they believe that reducing the dependence of the index's income on cyclical sectors may provide some stability. The consensus forecast for earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 coincides with analysts' estimate of $250, which supports the target for the S&P 500 at the end of the year. 

Analysts have expressed doubts about the ambitious forecast for profit growth of 15% in 2025, offering a more cautious forecast in the area of high single-digit percentage growth rates. Despite these considerations, analysts remain positive about the market and confirm their year-end S&P 500 target at 5,600.