What could make the Fed go back to raising rates?

HSBC analysts believe that, despite the current easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, interest rate hikes may resume by 2026. In their report, they point out that the Fed recently cut rates by 50 basis points after 14 months of holding steady, following similar actions by the European Central Bank and other central banks of the G10 countries.

HSBC notes that although inflation in the United States remains at a high level, it is gradually decreasing, and the labor market is showing signs of cooling, which creates conditions for easing monetary policy. However, the bank stresses that uncertainty remains due to global economic conditions, political events and market instability.

One of the key factors that may influence the Fed's future decisions is the upcoming US presidential election. The outcome of the election may affect the country's fiscal and monetary policy, which, in turn, will affect the decisions of the Federal Open Market Operations Committee (FOMC).

HSBC is considering two possible scenarios. The first involves tightening fiscal policy and further lowering rates. The second is the occurrence of supply shocks, for example, due to tariffs or changes in immigration policy, which may lead to higher rates.

HSBC does not rule out that the Fed may start raising rates again as early as 2026 if the economy recovers faster than expected. At the same time, if the United States faces a recession in 2025, the regulator is likely to continue its policy of lowering rates.