Analysts have identified 3 stages of the «Trump trade» in 2025

Wolfe Research analysts have identified three key phases of the so-called «Trump trade» that will determine investors' strategy in the face of political uncertainty associated with the new US administration.

1. The first phase: has already ended. It came immediately after the election, when the market began to take into account the first expectations of policy changes.

2. The second phase will begin in the first 100 days of the new administration, during the period of active discussion and implementation of the Trump program.

3. The third phase will begin as data becomes available that will show whether the impact of the new policy will be positive or negative for economic growth.

Forecasts by market sectors

The first half of 2025. Experts expect defensive growth stocks, including technology companies from the «Magnificent Seven» list, to show the best results. This is due to investors' focus on minimizing the risks associated with possible tariffs, draft laws on approval, and other policy initiatives.

The second half of 2025. The gradual clarification of policy decisions such as deregulation and trade reforms should have a positive impact on the financial, industrial and consumer sectors, which have received support since the elections.

Market Rotation: from caution to cyclical stocks

Wolfe Research emphasizes that the initial uncertainty of the political course may reduce interest in cyclical assets. During this period, preference will be given to investments in companies with long-term growth potential. However, the adoption of key legislative initiatives may become a driver for significant market rotation towards the end of the year, when the focus will shift back towards cyclical sectors.