On Monday, the GBP/USD currency pair continued its upward movement, unlike the euro, which rose in the second half of the day. Thus, the British pound is likely to continue its upward trend, both locally and globally. The euro remains within the sideways channel for now. In principle, both currency pairs have upward tendencies. Therefore, we expect growth from the euro sooner or later as well.
On Monday, the macroeconomic and fundamental background for both the euro and the pound was absent. There was nothing for traders to react to during the day, but let us recall that there were plenty of reasons for a new decline in the dollar last week, as well as generally over the last 7–8 months. Thus, temporary pauses are possible, but they do not alter the situation. The market takes a brief break, regains strength, and then continues selling the US currency.
This week, much will, of course, depend on macroeconomic data from overseas. It is impossible to predict those in advance, so we will not speculate. In our opinion, even if US reports do support the dollar, we are talking about yet another round of technical correction, nothing more.
On the 5-minute chart yesterday, a buy signal was formed as the price overcame the important area of 1.3509–1.3525. Thus, traders could open long positions. Intraday volatility was minimal, so there was no point in closing the trade manually. It is better to set a short Stop Loss for it and wait for further growth of the pair.
COT reports for the British pound indicate that over recent years, the sentiment of commercial traders has shifted constantly. The red and blue lines, reflecting net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders, frequently cross and usually close to zero. Currently, they're almost level, indicating a nearly equal number of buy and sell positions.
The dollar continues to weaken due to Trump's policy, so market makers' demand for sterling is not particularly important right now. The trade war is likely to persist in some form for an extended period. The Federal Reserve will be forced to cut rates at some point in the coming year. Demand for the dollar will decline anyway. According to the latest report on the pound, the "Non-commercial" group closed 5,300 BUY contracts and opened 800 SELL contracts. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders shrank by 6,100 contracts over the reporting week.
In 2025, the pound strengthened greatly, but this was for one reason: Trump's policy. As soon as this is neutralized, the dollar could resume rising—but no one knows when that will happen. It doesn't matter how fast the net position of the pound rises or falls. For the dollar, it continues to decline, usually at a faster pace.
On the hourly timeframe, GBP/USD is poised to form a new upward trend and exited the sideways channel of 1.3420–1.3525 on Monday. The GBP/USD pair has corrected enough in recent weeks to resume the global uptrend that began back in January. The fundamental and macroeconomic background has not changed in recent weeks, so there is still no reason to expect the dollar to strengthen. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy easing in September may finish off the dollar.
For September 2, we highlight the following important levels: 1.3125, 1.3212, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3420, 1.3509–1.3525, 1.3615, 1.3681, 1.3763, 1.3833, 1.3886. The Senkou Span B (1.3490) and Kijun-sen (1.3475) lines can also be sources of signals. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss level at breakeven when the price moves 20 pips in the correct direction. The Ichimoku indicator lines may fluctuate throughout the day, which should be considered when determining trading signals.
Tuesday has no significant scheduled events in the UK, but in the US, the important ISM Manufacturing PMI will be published. Please note that the ISM indices are published only in the US, and they are of key importance for traders.
We believe that the upward movement may continue on Tuesday, since the resistance area of 1.3509–1.3525 has been overcome. Thus, long positions can be maintained targeting the level of 1.3615.
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