The main events by the morning: May 1

• The US economy is shrinking. The country's inflation-adjusted GDP decreased by 0.3% in the first quarter. This happened for the first time since 2022. Consumer spending increased by 1.8%. Net export (the difference between exports and imports) reduced GDP by 5%. This is a record figure for the entire history of observations.

• Saudi Arabia brought down the oil market, declaring its readiness not to support falling prices and to withstand a prolonged period of low quotations. This is perceived as a signal of a possible increase in OPEC+ production and a transition to aggressive expansion, which could trigger a price war. The change in strategy is due to dissatisfaction with the actions of other OPEC+ members exceeding quotas and the reduction of Saudi Arabia's market share.

• The United States and Ukraine have signed an agreement on minerals. The deal will provide the United States with privileged access to new investment projects for the development of Ukraine's natural resources, including aluminum, graphite, oil and natural gas. The United States will have the right of first claim for profits transferred to a special reconstruction investment fund, which will be controlled by Washington.

• Trump expects to receive more than $350 billion from the resource deal with Ukraine. According to him, this is exactly the amount given to Ukraine by his predecessor Biden. Mr. Trump also said that during a conversation with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky in the Vatican, he urged him to conclude a deal on resources, because «Russia is much bigger and stronger.»

• The European Union is preparing for a potential US withdrawal from the negotiations. The EU believes that the White House is considering withdrawing from the negotiations on Ukraine due to the fact that they turned out to be a more difficult task than expected. At the same time, some EU members still want to restore relations with Russia. But the head of European diplomacy, Kallas, does not believe that this is possible.