Goldman Sachs: core inflation in the US will fall to 2,9% by the end of 2023

Experts of the investment bank Goldman Sachs believe that the core inflation index (PCE Core index) will fall below 3% by the end of next year amid easing supply-side problems, lower real estate prices and a cooling labor market.

According to analysts, the PCE Core index (one of the most important indicators for the Federal Reserve) will fall from the current 5.1% to 3.5% by mid-2023, and by December it may reach 2.9%. A decrease in inflation in the country will allow the Fed to slow down in terms of aggressive tightening of monetary policy aimed at combating excessively high inflation. 

Markets, as a rule, react sharply to incoming data on the dynamics of consumer prices in the United States. For example, last week the stock market and the bond market demonstrated a rally after the publication of October inflation statistics, which turned out to be better than forecasts.

The S&P 500 index rose by 5.9% last week, which was the best result since the end of June. And the Nasdaq Composite jumped 8.1%, showing the best weekly rise since March. Analysts believe that the current rally on Wall Street will continue further, which will allow the S&P 500 indicator to soar by another 25%. This optimism can be explained by the expectation that the US Federal Reserve will soon switch to less aggressive measures in its monetary policy.