Top 5 events of the macroeconomic calendar

1. Non-farm Payrolls Employment Report in the USA

Friday's report on the state of the US non-manufacturing labor market will be the main event of the week, as investors remain hopeful that the Federal Reserve will soon slow down the pace of rate hikes. Economists expect that only 200,000 new jobs have been created in the economy, which will be the smallest increase since December 2020.

In addition, the growth of average hourly earnings is expected to slow down, and the unemployment rate remains at 3.7% (slightly above the 50-year low).

This employment report will be the last before the Fed's final meeting this year in December. At the same time, there is a possibility that the statistics will be better than forecasts, which may again turn into trouble for the American stock market.

2. Fed speakers

This week, it is also worth paying attention to the speeches of representatives of the US Federal Reserve. Central Bank Governor Jerome Powell will speak at the Brookings Institution on Wednesday, where he will discuss economic prospects. Earlier, Powell said that the Fed could move to smaller rate hikes next month, while not ruling out the possibility that the rate could eventually be higher than politicians thought by next year.

3. Retail trade statistics

Retail trade statistics, especially during the holiday shopping and Black Friday sales, are an important indicator of the state of the American economy. Last Saturday, Adobe Analytics published a report on the volume of online spending, according to which it grew by 2.3% on Black Friday (to a record $9.12 billion). At the same time, the percentage increase was much lower than the annual inflation rate, which currently stands at 7.7%.

4. Inflation in the eurozone

Inflation data in Europe will be published on Wednesday. And while there are signs in the US that inflation may peak and slow down, price pressure remains strong in the eurozone. In October, the eurozone CPI reached 10.6%, which is more than 5 times higher than the European Central Bank's target of 2%.

At its October meeting, the ECB raised the rate by 75 basis points to 1.5%. It is expected that at the meeting on December 15, the European regulator will raise the rate again, by 50 or 75 basis points.

5. China PMI Index

Hopes for China's economic recovery in the first quarter of 2023 are steadily weakening. The fact is that the PRC is imposing increasing restrictions to prevent a further increase in the number of cases of coronavirus infection, which has an extremely detrimental effect on the recovery of the world's second largest economy. 

China's PMI data will be released on Wednesday, which is of great interest to many market participants at the moment, as widespread restrictions continue to depress economic activity.