Experts: global inflation has passed its peak

Analysts believe that inflation in the countries of the world has already reached peak values, but a potentially slow decline in the indicator from the highs for several decades is likely to remain a problem for central banks in 2023.

Statistical data from the United States and Europe, published this week, indicated a weakening of key inflation indicators. For example, the consumer price index (PCE index, closely monitored by the Federal Reserve) in the United States rose by 6% y/y in October after rising by 6.3% in September. Consumer prices in the eurozone increased by 10% y/y in November. Thus, we can say that inflation has slowed down compared to the historical maximum of 10.6% in October.

Investors' inflationary expectations are also weakening, and supply chain problems related to the coronavirus pandemic and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine are decreasing.

Moreover, there are signs that the increase in key rates by world central banks is beginning to bear fruit, albeit at a slow pace.

Against the background of all these factors, it can be concluded that global inflation peaked at 9.8% in annual terms in the third quarter and is now slowing down and may reach 9.5% by the end of the fourth quarter of this year, and reach 5.3% by the end of 2023.

However, at the same time, risks remain, including an unstable recovery of supply chains, the likelihood of a new jump in commodity prices as the Chinese economy opens up, and the need to raise wages due to the high cost of living.