Publication of the December FOMC meeting minutes

Last night, all the attention of the markets was directed to the publication of the minutes of the December meeting of the US Federal Reserve representatives.

According to the document, none of the 19 members of the top management of the Federal Reserve considers it reasonable to reduce the base interest rate this year. Although many market participants hoped that the Fed would start cutting rates at some point during 2023.

The leaders of the US Central Bank also noted that they want to wait for new signals of progress in the movement of inflation to the target level of 2%. Therefore, the softening of financial conditions, even in the medium term, may complicate the task of restoring price stability.

Analysts note that the minutes of the last November meeting showed softer rhetoric, and the current document «kills the last hopes for a soft landing of the American economy.»

At the same time, members of the Fed's leadership noted that over the past year they have made «significant progress» in raising rates sufficient to reduce inflation. 

Recall that in December, the US raised the rate to 4.25-4.5% – the highest level in 15 years. The Fed also warned about a further rate increase in 2023, as they consider the fight against inflation to be their priority. As a result, 2022 was one of the worst years for the US stock and bond market: for example, the S&P 500 index lost 19.4%.