The yield of US government bonds is moderately declining in anticipation of inflation data

On Tuesday, US government bond yields declined moderately in anticipation of new data on US inflation.

The yield on 10-year US Treasuries fell by 1.2 basis points, reaching 4,458%. The indicator for 2-year bonds decreased by 1.7 bps, falling to 4.94%, and for 30-year bonds – by 1 bps to 4.565%.

On Friday, data on the April PCE index will be published, which the Federal Reserve System pays attention to when assessing inflation risks. The surveyed analysts predict that the growth of the index will remain at the level of March indicators – 2.7% y/y and 0.3% m/m.

Last week, several members of the Fed's leadership said they planned to wait for more convincing signals of a slowdown in inflation before deciding to lower the key interest rate.

The market now estimates the probability of a rate cut in September at 49.4%, which is lower than 65.7% a week earlier. At the beginning of the year, the Fed was expected to lower the rate six times in 2024, but now optimists are hoping for only two cuts.