Oil may rise in price due to a drop in production in the United States

Analysts believe that after the recent decline in crude oil prices, the situation may soon change due to the expected slowdown in oil production in the United States. 

For most of 2024, oil showed positive dynamics, but in recent months the yield has turned negative: the cost of Brent decreased by 3.5%, and WTI – by 0.4% year-on-year.

According to experts, fluctuations in oil prices are caused by both demand and supply factors. The global economy is slowing down, which is holding back demand, and market participants are concerned about a possible increase in oil production by the largest producers — OPEC+ and the United States. However, a number of experts believe that these expectations have already been taken into account in current prices, and in fact the situation may turn out to be different.

«Although oil demand was low in 2024, its decline is not accelerating, which is important against the background of rising global liquidity and lower interest rates,» Wells Fargo Bank said. 

In addition, the bank assumes that with prices in the range of $60-70 per barrel, OPEC+ and the United States will reduce rather than increase production, which will help strengthen the market.

Special attention is paid to the statements of OPEC+ on the postponement of the increase in production scheduled for October 2024, as well as the fact that production growth in the United States may also slow down, as the cost of opening new wells reaches $ 64 per barrel. As a result, oil prices are projected to start rising again in the coming months.