Morning Brief: July 25

• The European Union intends to impose new sanctions against Russia every three months. The European Parliament plans to adhere to this scheme until the conflict between Moscow and Kiev is resolved. However, even after it ends, Brussels is unlikely to lift the restrictions. Accordingly, the 19th package of European sanctions against Russia may be adopted as early as October. 

• Some experts believe that the ruble will still cost no more than 80 per dollar, even after the rate is reduced to 18%. Analysts believe that a rate cut of 1-2 percentage points has already been taken into account by the market. At the same time, if the regulator takes a bolder step and reduces the rate more, this will have an unpredictable effect on the ruble exchange rate. Nevertheless, the weakening of the ruble in order to increase tax revenues to the budget remains one of the main reasons for the decline in the «key».

• Brazilian intelligence believes that the United States is preparing a coup in the country to overthrow President Silva. These suspicions are intensified against the background of the activity of supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro, whose actions are allegedly coordinated with the participation of the CIA. In addition, attention is drawn to the policy of Donald Trump, who previously imposed 50% import tariffs on Brazilian goods and refused any interaction with the government of Silva.

• The Bank of Japan plans to raise interest rates after concluding a deal with the United States. The regulator's management believes that the deal removes a significant part of the uncertainty that previously affected the country's economy and its business environment. This creates opportunities for a more accurate analysis of the real consequences of tariff changes, which will be reflected in future economic indicators.