Analysis of Monday's Trades:

1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

The EUR/USD currency pair traded back and forth on Monday. Given that there were no significant events or reports throughout the day, the sharp change in market sentiment is somewhat unclear. Recall that on Saturday, Donald Trump announced new tariffs of 15% (the maximum allowed under the Trade Act), and the market had not yet fully processed the cancellation of old tariffs and the introduction of new ones at 10%. Thus, the dollar's decline at the market open was quite logical, but it then regained "all the losses accumulated through hard work." We can only note the completely unreasonable growth of the dollar. Once again. This time, it was not just the fundamental and macroeconomic background (the U.S. GDP report on Friday) that went against the American currency, but also the technical picture. Yesterday, the upper boundary of the descending channel was broken, signifying the end of the downward trend. However, as we can see, the market is currently unresponsive to anything and is simply selling the EUR/USD pair.

5M Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe, two good trading signals were generated on Monday. Late at night, the price bounced off the 1.1830-1.1837 area, then repeated the trick during the European trading session. As a result, novice traders had a great opportunity to open short positions. Throughout the day, the pair decreased by 25-35 pips, which could have been easily profited from.

How to Trade on Tuesday:

On the hourly timeframe, the downward correction is canceled, as the price has consolidated above the descending channel, but the pair is not showing any growth yet. At the beginning of 2026, the long-term upward trend has resumed, so we expect new growth for the euro. The overall fundamental background remains very challenging for the American currency, so we fully support further upward movement.

On Tuesday, novice traders may consider short positions if the price consolidates below the 1.1745-1.1754 area, with a target in the 1.1655-1.1666 area. A price bounce from the area of 1.1745-1.1754 will allow for opening long positions with a target of 1.1830-1.1837.

On the 5-minute timeframe, the following levels should be considered: 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1550, 1.1584-1.1591, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1830-1.1837, 1.1899-1.1908, 1.1970-1.1988, 1.2044-1.2056, 1.2092-1.2104. Today, a weekly ADP report on the labor market will be published in the U.S., which is of no interest to traders. In the European Union, the events calendar is completely empty. Volatility today may again be low.

Main Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is determined by the time it takes to form (rebound or breaking through the level). The shorter the time, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened around a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair can generate numerous false signals or no signals at all. In any case, it is best to stop trading at the first signs of a flat.
4. Trades are opened during the time period between the start of the European session and until the middle of the American session, after which all trades should be manually closed.
5. On the hourly timeframe, signals from the MACD indicator should ideally be traded only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by a trend line or channel.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (ranging from 5 to 20 pips), they should be considered as a support or resistance area.
7. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, it is advisable to set the Stop Loss to break-even.

What's on the Charts:

• Support and resistance levels are targets for opening buy or sell trades. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.
• Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading now.
• The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – the histogram and signal line – serves as a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
• Important speeches and reports (always found in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or it is advised to exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding movement.
• Beginners trading in the Forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing sound money management are the keys to long-term trading success.