Trade analysis and advice for trading the British pound

The test of the 1.3335 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero mark, confirming a correct entry point for buying the pound. However, the pair failed to rise, which resulted in the trade being closed with a loss.

In the second half of the day, there will be no U.S. economic statistics, so all attention will be focused on the war between the United States and Israel against Iran. The geopolitical tension caused by the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East is having a strong impact on global financial markets. In conditions of uncertainty and potential threats to regional stability, investors typically seek refuge in assets considered the most reliable, which is reflected in the strong Asian-session rise of the U.S. dollar.

In the short term, the increase in demand for the dollar may be driven by its status as a reserve currency and its relative liquidity. Any escalation of violence, especially affecting strategically important regions such as the Persian Gulf, could trigger panic in financial markets, leading to another sell-off in GBP/USD.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of Scenario No. 1 and Scenario No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today I plan to buy the pound when the price reaches the entry point around 1.3351 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.3404 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3404, I plan to exit buy positions and open sell positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point move in the opposite direction). A strong rise in the pound today is unlikely.

Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to move upward from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3325 price while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal of the market upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.3351 and 1.3404 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after a break of the 1.3325 level (red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline of the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3286, where I plan to exit sell positions and immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Pressure on the pound may return at any moment.

Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3351 price while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3325 and 1.3286 can be expected.

What is shown on the chart

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line – the estimated level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, since further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line – the estimated level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be locked in manually, since further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important

Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade with large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.