The dollar crashed after the U.S. suddenly announced that it is ready for a peace agreement and a two-week pause following attacks on Iranian territory.

Such statements from Trump, made amid peak tensions in the Middle East, triggered an immediate response in the financial markets. Traders who had previously expected an escalation of the conflict and, consequently, a rise in oil prices and a strengthening of the dollar as a safe-haven asset were forced to revise their positions. The sharp decline in the value of the American currency reflected a loss of confidence in U.S. leadership and the unpredictability of its foreign policy, as well as the emergence of a real prospect for restoring trade relations and lifting sanctions. Trump's willingness to engage in dialogue opens a window of opportunity for de-escalation in the region. A successful resolution of the Iranian crisis and the restoration of unhindered navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the key maritime routes for oil transportation, could stabilize energy prices and support the global economic recovery.

As for fundamental data, today promises to be eventful. A number of key macroeconomic indicators are expected from Germany and the Eurozone. In particular, attention will be focused on the figures regarding changes in industrial orders in Germany. This indicator serves as a barometer of the condition of one of the engines of the European economy and is a significant factor for assessing growth prospects. Strong order figures may strengthen the euro.

Simultaneously, data on changes in retail sales in the Eurozone will be released. This indicator reflects consumer activity, and consequently, the level of domestic demand in the currency bloc. Positive trends in retail sales will indicate consumer confidence and the capacity for economic growth, which will also support the single European currency.

No less significant will be the release of the producer price index for the Eurozone. This indicator precedes subsequent changes in consumer prices (CPI) and allows for assessing inflation expectations. The dynamics of PPI may influence the European Central Bank's decisions regarding future monetary policy, which, in turn, will affect the bond market and exchange rates. However, it is important to understand that these data will cover February, which already holds little relevance.

As for the pound, in the first half of the day, market participants will focus on the release of several important UK macroeconomic indicators. In particular, the publication of data on the PMI index for the construction sector is expected, as well as the report on house price indices from Halifax. The PMI index, which reflects activity in the construction sector, may show further slowing. Demand for new properties is likely to remain under pressure due to high construction costs, limited mortgage lending availability, and an overall decline in consumer confidence.

Equally important will be the data on house price indices from Halifax. The trend towards rising property prices observed recently is likely to continue.

If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is best to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data is significantly above or below economists' expectations, the Momentum strategy is preferable.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For the EUR/USD Pair:

Buy on a breakout of the level 1.1705, which may lead to a rise of the euro towards 1.1745 and 1.1769;

Sell on a breakout of the level 1.1667, which may lead to a decline of the euro towards 1.1635 and 1.1602;

For the GBP/USD Pair:

Buy on a breakout of the level 1.3425, which may lead to a rise of the pound towards 1.3451 and 1.3476;

Sell on a breakout of the level 1.3405, which may lead to a decline of the pound towards 1.3380 and 1.3360;

For the USD/JPY Pair:

Buy on a breakout of the level 158.57, which may lead to a rise of the dollar towards 158.87 and 159.09;

Sell on a breakout of the level 158.28, which may lead to a decline of the dollar towards 157.93 and 157.69;

Mean Reversion Strategy (Retracement):

For the EUR/USD Pair:

Sell looking for a failed breakout above 1.1689 on a return below this level;

Buy looking for a failed breakout below 1.1663 on a return to this level;

For the GBP/USD Pair:

Sell looking for a failed breakout above 1.3428 on a return below this level;

Buy looking for a failed breakout below 1.3391 on a return to this level;

For the AUD/USD Pair:

Sell looking for a failed breakout above 0.7083 on a return below this level;

Buy looking for a failed breakout below 0.7055 on a return to this level;

For the USD/CAD Pair:

Sell looking for a failed breakout above 1.3848 on a return below this level;

Buy looking for a failed breakout below 1.3826 on a return to this level;