Analysis of Wednesday's Trades:

1H Chart of GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair also failed to show any interesting movement on Wednesday. Initially, the British pound rose moderately, then it decreased slightly, and on the hourly timeframe, it is evident that the pair has been trading in a sideways channel for almost a month. The new escalation of the conflict in the Middle East did not impress traders, as there have been at least ten violations of the truce in recent weeks. Each time, Tehran and Washington calmly continued negotiations, and Donald Trump kept promising a "tremendous deal" with Iran very soon. As a result, the market no longer believes in anything—neither in the resumption of war, nor in the signing of a peace agreement, nor in the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, nor in Tehran's and Washington's willingness to reach an agreement. Trump is losing the war in Iran, as none of his objectives have been achieved. The longer the conflict lasts, the lower Trump's chances of maintaining sole power in the US become. Congressional elections are just around the corner...

5M Chart of GBP/USD

On the 5-minute timeframe, two trading signals were formed on Wednesday. Throughout the entire European session, the pair attempted to bounce from the area of 1.3380-1.3386, and as night approached, it breached this area in the opposite direction. In both cases, we did not see any significant movement in the desired direction due to low volatility.

How to Trade on Thursday:

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to form a downward trend, as the geopolitical situation remains consistently poor, and the ascending trend line has been breached. However, without a resumption of full-scale war in the Middle East, the dollar cannot expect growth as it did in February-March. Individual events may still prompt further strengthening (as on Friday), but we do not believe the market will trigger a new wave of risk-off flows into the dollar. Under Trump, the dollar itself is a risky asset.

On Thursday, novice traders can open short positions targeting 1.3319-1.3331 if there is a bounce from the 1.3380-1.3386 area. A price consolidation above the area of 1.3380-1.3386 will allow for opening long positions with a target of 1.3456.

On the 5-minute timeframe, trading can currently take place at the following levels: 1.3175-1.3180, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3380-1.3386, 1.3456-1.3476, 1.3587-1.3598, 1.3631-1.3641, 1.3695, 1.3741-1.3751. On Thursday, no important events or reports are scheduled in the UK, while the only report in the US will be the Producer Price Index, which is unlikely to interest anyone, given that the inflation report was published yesterday...

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time required to form it (a bounce or a breakout). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may form many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are keys to success in trading over the long term.