Economic Calendar | February 13 – 17

Monday, February 13

On Monday, the macroeconomic calendar is completely empty again, although in general we are waiting for a rather busy week. In principle, the lack of publications could be an excellent reason for a local correction in the market, but on Friday Isabelle Schnabel from the European Central Bank answered journalists' questions, and these answers were extremely disliked by market participants. Therefore, it is not necessary to expect any rebound today and, most likely, the market will consolidate in the area of the values reached on Friday.

Tuesday, February 14

Tuesday will begin with the publication of a preliminary estimate of Japan's GDP for the fourth quarter, which should show a further slowdown in economic growth. In addition, in the Land of the Rising Sun, the rate of decline in industrial production should also accelerate: from the current -0.9% to -2.8%. Naturally, the yen will be under pressure.

Then all the market's attention will switch to the UK, where unemployment is projected to rise from 3.7% to 3.8%. So the pound will also be forced to lose its positions. 

The eurozone will present a second estimate of GDP, but it should only confirm the previous estimate, which the market has already taken into account. 

But the main event not only on Tuesday, but throughout the week will be the publication of inflation data in the United States. According to forecasts, the growth rate of consumer prices may slow down from 6.5% to 6.3%. It is worth noting that a further decrease in inflation will give investors hope that the Federal Reserve System will soon complete the current cycle of interest rate hikes and announce their gradual reduction. In this case, the dollar will begin to weaken noticeably.

Wednesday, February 15

However, on Wednesday, the single European currency and the pound sterling will again lose their positions against the background of two factors. Firstly, inflation in the UK may slow down from 10.5% to 10.3%. Secondly, the growth rate of industrial production in the eurozone, which currently stands at 2.0%, should be replaced by a decline of -0.3%.

But after the opening of the American trading session, the American dollar will lose its positions. Mainly due to retail sales, the growth rate of which is likely to slow down from 6.0% to 4.5%. In addition, the growth rate of industrial production will decrease from 1.6% to 1.1%.

Thursday, February 16

The most interesting event on Thursday will be the publication of data on the labor market in Australia. However, they are unlikely to affect the mood of market participants, since the unemployment rate itself should remain unchanged. 

As for applications for unemployment benefits in the United States, changes in them are expected to be so insignificant that they will face the same fate as the unemployment data in Australia.

Friday, February 17

The main event on Friday will be data on retail sales in the UK, the rate of decline of which should accelerate from -5.8% to -6.6%. It is logical that after such a pound will surely lose its position.