Global trade is under threat: WTO predicts decline in trade turnover

The WTO predicts a 0.2% reduction in global trade in 2025 at the current tariff level, which is three percentage points lower than expected in the «low-tariff» scenario. If the situation worsens, the decline may reach 1.5%. Trade in services will also slow down, with growth of only 4%. 

WTO Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala expressed concern about the uncertainty in trade policy, especially against the background of the conflict between the United States and China, despite the temporary 90-day pause.

Initially, the WTO expected global trade to grow in 2025 and 2026, but new tariffs introduced in January forced a revision of forecasts. North America could see a 12.6% drop in exports and a 9.6% drop in imports, reducing overall global trade growth by 1.7%. A small increase is expected in Europe and Asia, but it will not compensate for global losses.

The aggravation of relations between the United States and China will increase competition: Chinese exports to regions outside North America will grow by 4-9%, while US imports from China will decrease, creating opportunities for other countries. The return of US tariffs could seriously hit the least developed countries, but their exports, similar to China's, can partially fill the vacant niches, especially in the textile and electronics industries.