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Analysts expect a downtrend to develop next week


November, 12 2021
watermark Economic news

Analyzing the technical picture on the Russian and American stock exchanges, as well as the situation on the oil market, we can conclude that next week there are likely risks of a downward correction and updating of local minimums.


In particular, this is evidenced by the position of the Moscow Exchange and RTS indices below the resistances of 4220 and 1875 points (the average Bollinger bands of the daily charts). A moderately pessimistic scenario assumes the consolidation of indicators below the psychologically important values of 4100 and 1800 points. For Brent and WTI futures, the key resistances are located at $84 and $82.50, respectively.


If we analyze the fundamental background, no significant negative signals are expected to appear next week, however, fears of a tightening of the Fed's rhetoric due to a strong increase in US inflation may persist in the markets. 


Economic calendar 


In the US and China, data on retail sales and industrial production, the first data on the US housing market for October, as well as the Philadelphia Federal Reserve index of manufacturing activity will be published. In Europe, revised estimates of the region's GDP for the third quarter and consumer inflation for October will be presented. Germany will publish production inflation data for last month (acceleration from 14.2% to 16.2% y/y is expected).


Oil market


The drivers of the movement of oil prices next week will be the monthly report of the International Energy Agency and its forecasts on supply and demand. Moreover, investors continue to assess the risks of the sale of US strategic reserves, which creates additional pressure on the oil market.


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Foreign exchange is highly speculative and complex in nature, and may not be suitable for all investors. Forex trading may result in a substantial gain or loss. Therefore, it is not advisable to invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before using the services offered by ForexMart, please acknowledge the risks associated with forex trading. Seek independent financial advice if necessary. Please note that neither past performance nor forecasts are reliable indicators of future results.