Wednesday's Trade Recap:

1H EUR/USD Chart

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair demonstrated minimal volatility—something traders have grown used to in recent weeks. The U.S. dollar once again attempted to strengthen for no apparent reason, even though there were no important economic events or reports in either the EU or the U.S.

At the time of writing, traders failed to secure a break below the 1.1584 level, though the nature of current price action suggests this level may eventually give way. As such, we continue to observe dollar appreciation that contradicts both the global fundamental picture and even the short-term technical setup.

It's worth noting that nearly all factors remain negative for the U.S. dollar, and the descending trendline on the hourly chart was previously broken. However, an actual bullish trend has yet to materialize. The pair drifts lower almost mechanically each day, losing around 20 pips on average. These movements remain irrational and low in volatility. On the daily chart, the sideways trend (flat) persists, which we believe is the root cause of current market behavior.

5M EUR/USD Chart

In the 5-minute time frame, one decent trade signal formed on Wednesday. During the start of the U.S. trading session, the pair bounced from the 1.1571–1.1584 zone—providing an opportunity for beginners to open long positions. Due to the lack of volatility, the pair moved upward by only 20–25 pips.

How to Trade on Thursday:

On the hourly chart, EUR/USD is showing early signs of a new bullish trend. The descending trendline has once again been broken, and the fundamental and macroeconomic background remains broadly negative for the U.S. dollar. Accordingly, we continue expecting the renewal of the 2025 uptrend. However, until the flat structure on the daily chart is resolved, we may continue to experience low volatility and erratic moves on the lower time frames.

Since no key macroeconomic events are scheduled for either the EU or the U.S. on Thursday, the pair can move in either direction. New trading signals are most likely to form near the 1.1571–1.1584 zone, which is where the price is currently trading.

Key intraday levels to monitor on the 5M chart: 1.1354–1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455–1.1474, 1.1527, 1.1571–1.1584, 1.1655–1.1666, 1.1745–1.1754, 1.1808, 1.1851, 1.1908, 1.1970–1.1988. Christine Lagarde's frequent speeches in recent weeks have lost their market-moving power, and her recent statements have brought no new information, further reducing fundamental drivers for the day.

Key Trading System Rules:

1. Signal strength is assessed based on how quickly it forms (bounce or breakout). The less time it takes, the stronger the signal.
2. If multiple false signals appear at a level, all future signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In flat conditions, currency pairs may create mass false signals—or no signals at all. Upon detecting a flat, it's often better to stop trading.
4. Trades should be opened between the start of the European session and the middle of the U.S. session. All positions should be manually closed afterward.
5. On the H1 chart, MACD signals should only be followed during trending periods confirmed by trendlines or defined channels.
6. If two levels sit close together (5–20 pips), treat them as a support or resistance zone rather than separate levels.
7. After the price moves 15 pips in the correct direction, move your Stop Loss to breakeven to reduce risk.

Chart Key (What You See on the Charts):

• Support and Resistance Levels — used as near-term trade targets or areas for placing Take Profit orders
• Red lines — trendlines or channels indicating current directional bias
• MACD (14,22,3) — serves as a supplementary indicator for signal confirmation through histogram and signal line interpretation

Important note: High-impact news events and economic releases (always listed in news calendars) can significantly impact the volatility of currency pairs. During such releases, trade carefully—or exit the market altogether—to avoid aggressive price reversals.

Beginner traders on the Forex market should remember: not every trade will be profitable. The key to long-term success lies in having a clear trading strategy and applying strict money management principles.