Experts predict an increase in ECB rates by 50 bps

Today, February 2, the first meeting of the European Central Bank in 2023 on the rate will be held. Market participants are confident that the ECB will raise key interest rates by 50 basis points, to the highest since 2008.

If the market forecasts come true, the base interest rate on loans will be raised to 3%, the deposit rate to 2.5%, and the rate on margin loans to 3.25%. At the previous meeting, the ECB increased all three rates by 50 bps. In total, they were raised by 250 bps in 2022.

Following the results of the December meeting, the head of the central bank, Christine Lagarde, said that the regulator intends to continue raising rates at a rate of 50 bps, and already in January, some representatives of the Central Bank confirmed the relevance of these plans. Now the main question for investors is whether the ECB will continue to increase rates by 50 bps in March, or will consider it necessary to slow down the pace of their increase.

It is worth noting that the European regulator usually makes a decision on rates not in advance, but directly at each meeting, taking into account the emerging data. 

Today, data on inflation in the eurozone were published, according to which the growth rate of consumer prices in January slowed significantly – to 8.5% in annual terms (from 9.2% in December). This indicator has become the lowest since May last year, but it still significantly exceeds the ECB's 2% target.