Goldman Sachs expects four Fed rate cuts by the end of the year

In light of recent statements by the leadership of the Federal Reserve and the minutes of the January meeting, the forecast on the trajectory of the Fed's interest rate for 2024, presented by the American bank Goldman Sachs Group, has been revised.

According to the updated forecasts, four rate cuts are expected in 2024, instead of five, as previously expected. The first decrease of 25 basis points is expected in June.

At the same time, a member of the Fed's board of Governors, Michelle Bowman, expressed the opinion that the right moment for a rate cut has not yet come. The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Neil Kashkari, also expressed a desire to wait some time before cutting the rate. And the chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Rafael Bostic, said that there may be changes in monetary policy towards a more neutral one in the summer.

These statements indicate that most members of the Fed's leadership are in no hurry to reduce the interest rate, which is reflected in the new forecast by Goldman Sachs. The bank also forecasts four more rate cuts for 2025.

The Fed's dot plot shows that 11 of the 19 heads of the American Central Bank expect a rate cut of at least 75 bps in 2024. New forecasts will be published along with the results of the next meeting, which will be held on March 19-20.