Trump's tariffs – will inflation be a new «great depression»?

The tariff policy proposed by President Trump, involving a 60% tax on imports from China and a 10% tax on imports from other countries, could seriously affect inflation in the United States. This will increase the average import tax from 4.8% to 15.6%.

Analysts predict a 1.8% price increase over two years, which corresponds to an annual increase in inflation of 0.9 percentage points above the standard forecast. 

This relatively small increase is explained by several factors. Forecasts do not take into account possible indirect consequences, such as shifting costs to consumers or disruptions in supply chains. In addition, goods from China account for only 1.5% of U.S. GDP, while imports from other countries account for 12%. 

However, the experience of the past trade conflict with China, when import taxes rose to 19.3% and 3%, respectively, shows that the proposed tariffs of 60/10 represent a significant increase. 

The main threat is the possibility of indirect consequences. The impact on inflation will be felt until the US is able to replace imports. A shortage of goods and a lack of alternatives can lead to higher price increases, which will be a negative shock to supply. 

Although the direct effect on inflation from Trump's proposed taxes will be 1.8% over two years, indirect consequences and disruptions in supply chains can significantly increase these costs.