Trade Review and Advice on Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 147.58 price level in the first half of the day occurred just as the MACD indicator began moving up from the zero line, confirming a good entry point for buying dollars and resulting in a rise of more than 40 pips.

In the second half of the day, the only notable data is the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations. Weak data will help the yen strengthen against the dollar. The sentiment index, as a barometer of consumer confidence, can forecast changes in consumer spending, which directly impacts economic growth. Inflation expectations, in turn, shape investors' views on the future value of money and influence their investment decisions. If the sentiment index comes in below expectations, this may signal a slowdown in economic growth and weaker consumer demand. In such a situation, investors may begin to shed dollar assets, leading to a weaker dollar against other currencies, including the yen.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenario

Scenario 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at the entry area around 148.06 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 148.49 (thicker green line on the chart). Near 148.49, I will exit longs and open shorts in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 pip move back from that level. Only rely on the pair to grow after receiving strong data. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above zero and just starting to rise.

Scenario 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 147.73 price area when the MACD is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downside and may trigger a reversal upward. A move up toward 148.06 and 148.49 can be expected.

Sell Scenario

Scenario 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a move below 147.73 (red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid drop in the pair. The main target for sellers will be 147.25, where I will exit shorts and immediately open longs, aiming for a 20–25 pip bounce in the opposite direction. Selling pressure will return on weak data. Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD is below zero and just starting to move down.

Scenario 2: I will also look to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 148.06 price level when the MACD is in overbought territory. This will limit the upside and may trigger a market reversal downward. A drop to 147.73 and then to 147.25 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought.

Thick green line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold.

Thick red line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.

MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is important to refer to overbought and oversold areas.

Important. Beginner forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes. And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, as I described above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation from moment to moment is a losing strategy for an intraday trader.