Gold continues to exhibit a dynamic that is mysterious to many investors: despite the weakening of the US dollar and the escalation of the Middle Eastern conflict, the precious metal remains in a narrow range around the psychologically important 5000.00 level.

The XAU/USD pair failed to capitalize on this classic growth opportunity, remaining virtually unchanged. The metal's price is consolidating just above the 5000.00 level, fluctuating in the range of 4970.00–5040.00 after Monday's fall to weekly lows.

From a technical perspective, the XAU/USD pair is trading in a short-term bear market, below resistance levels at 5100.00 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and 5040.00 (200-period EMA on the 4-hour chart).

At the same time, an upward price trend is maintained, with a medium-term trend above the support level of 4210.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), a long-term trend above the support level of 2900.00 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), and a global trend above the support level of 1830.00 (EMA200 on the monthly chart).

This maintains the long-term outlook for gold, which, in any case, acts as a traditional safe-haven asset, but is experiencing "temporary difficulties" in further growth for several fundamental reasons.

Wednesday's FOMC decision on interest rates will be a key catalyst for gold. Until then, gold will likely remain in the consolidation range of 4970.00–5040.00.

Key technical levels

Resistance:

• 5040.00 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart)
• 5085.00 (EMA144 on the 1-hour chart)
• 5100.00 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart)
• 5160.00-5200.00 (recent stabilization range)
• 5300.00–5350.00 (next target upon breaking 5200.00)

Support:

• 5000.00 (psychological level and buying zone)
• 4970.00 (lower boundary of the range and first Buy level)
• 4930.00 (EMA50 on the daily chart and Buy-2 level)
• 4850.00 — next target upon breaking 4900.00
• 4700.00-4680.00 — falling zone after a sharp correction amid the start of the US military campaign, Israel-Iran, and assuming the implementation of the bearish scenario.

The Relative Strength Index RSI (14-day) has decreased to 47, indicating bearish momentum without entering oversold territory, while OsMA has continued to draw histograms of a bear market since March 4, signaling a strengthening downward trend.

Despite all this, the possibility of a short-term rebound to the zone of 5070.00–5100.00 cannot be excluded, but the overall short-term structure remains bearish as long as the price moves within short-term (1-hour and 4-hour charts) descending channels.

Occasionally, gold shows attempts at short-term recovery, but the current upward movement resembles a retest of resistance rather than the beginning of a strong bullish reversal. Buyers are only "catching" a short-term rebound, while sellers maintain an edge in the broader structure.

• Scenario A (bearish): a breakdown below 4970.00 will open the way to 4930.00-4850.00 and further to 4680.00-4500.00.
• Scenario B (bullish): holding above 5000.00, with a breakout at 5040.00, will allow testing the 5100.00 level, and upon breaking it, the zone of 5160.00-5200.00. A more radical scenario would be growth toward 5300.00–5350.00 by the end of the first half of the year, and new records above 5600.00 (assuming soft rhetoric and a neutral position from the Fed) in the second half of the year.

Despite current pressures, structural factors continue to support gold in the long term:

• Geopolitical instability and fears of stagflation support demand for the precious metal as a "safe haven"
• Central banks continue to buy gold for reserve diversification
• Physical demand in Asia remains steady

Historically, inflation shocks increase the attractiveness of gold as a means of saving and hedging against currency volatility, especially when geopolitical tensions and currency volatility rise simultaneously. The combination of technical probabilities of a return to higher average levels, geopolitical instability, and energy inflation creates a structural backdrop supporting higher gold prices in the upcoming monthly periods and cyclical intervals.

Trading scenarios

• Main scenario: Buy Limit 5000.00, 4980.00, 4930.00. Buy Stop 5050.00, 5110.00. Stop-Loss 4960.00. Targets 5160.00, 5200.00, 5230.00, 5250.00, 5300.00, 5400.00, 5415.00, 5500.00, 5600.00, 5700.00
• Alternative scenario: Sell Stop 4980.00, 4960.00. Stop-Loss 5020.00, 5050.00. Targets 4930.00, 4900.00, 4800.00, 4750.00, 4700.00, 4680.00, 4600.00, 4500.00, 4430.00, 4400.00, 4300.00, 4210.00, 4100.00, 4080.00, 4000.00

The "Targets" correspond to support/resistance levels. This also does not mean that they will necessarily be reached, but they can serve as a guideline when planning and placing your trading positions.