Review of Macroeconomic Reports:

No macroeconomic publications are scheduled for Tuesday, if one does not count the absolutely minor existing home sales report in the US. However, we believe this report will be ignored. The US will also publish the weekly ADP labor market report, which carries no meaningful signal. Only last Friday did the market see the far more important Nonfarm Payrolls and draw conclusions. The weekly ADP report matters even less than the monthly one.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

There is absolutely nothing to note among Tuesday's fundamental events. Not a single speech by any central bank representative is scheduled. However, speeches by central banks' officials are not needed right now. After Friday's Nonfarm report, it became clear — expecting a Fed key rate hike in September is not warranted. We also believe the Fed will not raise the key rate at all in 2026, but this conclusion is not highly probable, since the situation in the Middle East could change ten more times. As for the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, they may raise rates, but everything will depend on inflation figures.

The geopolitical background continues to leave much to be desired. The US and Iran continue to exchange strikes regularly; negotiations are not currently taking place; the Strait of Hormuz remains closed or partially closed; Yemeni Houthis maintain a blockade of Saudi Arabia; and Tehran threatens to fully close the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait if Washington again tries to pressure it. The market does not believe Donald Trump's statements, and Iran now prefers to conduct negotiations with Oman rather than the US. However, any agreements between Muscat and Tehran make no sense if the US maintains a blockade of the strait. In that case, Iran will also maintain its blockade.

General Conclusions:

During the second trading day of the week, currency pairs may show low volatility, as no important events are scheduled for today. The euro can be traded today from the 1.1527–1.1531 area, and the pound sterling from the 1.3456–1.3476 area. Trading decisions will have to be made exclusively based on technical factors.

Main Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is assessed by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or level breakthrough). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades are opened around a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can form a multitude of false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. When trading based on MACD signals on the hourly timeframe, it is advisable to do so only when volatility is high and a trend line or channel supports the trend.
5. If two levels are too close to each other (from 5 to 20 pips), they should be regarded as a support or resistance area.
6. After a 15-pip move in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set to break even.

What the Charts Show:

Support and resistance price levels (areas) are the targets when opening buy or sell orders or sources of signals.

Red lines denote channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate in which direction trading is currently favored.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (as listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be approached with utmost caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the preceding movement.

Beginners in Forex trading should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.