Trade Analysis and Trading Tips for the Euro

The test of the 1.1147 price level occurred just as the MACD indicator was beginning to move upward from the zero line, confirming that it was an appropriate entry point for buying the euro. However, the pair rose by only 5 points, and that was the end of the move.

The euro market today looks as though everyone is waiting for a single event. European economic data was limited in the first half of the day, while Italy's unemployment rate rose to 6.3% in September, compared with expectations of 6.2% and the same reading in the previous period. The figure was slightly disappointing but had no decisive impact on the exchange rate. Sellers managed to push the pair to a new daily low, but failed to hold it below that level, and EUR/USD remains within a sideways trading range. All attention is focused on the upcoming ECB decision. The main refinancing rate is expected to remain at 2.65% and the deposit rate at 2.50%, with a pause widely anticipated. The key factor for the euro now is the tone of the ECB's statements. In September, the central bank raised rates by 25 basis points, while Lagarde declined to commit to a specific future policy path.

At the same time, the euro is under pressure from US economic data. The main indicator likely to influence sentiment toward the dollar is the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for September. It is forecast to rise by 0.3% month over month, compared with 0.2% in the previous period, and by 3.1% year over year, compared with 3.0%. In other words, economists expect a slight acceleration in inflation. If the index exceeds forecasts and third-quarter GDP comes in above the 3.2% estimate, the dollar will likely continue to strengthen.

As for the intraday trading strategy, greater emphasis will be placed on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, the euro can be bought when the price reaches the 1.1147 level (the green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1179. At 1.1179, the plan is to close the position and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. A rise in the euro today can be expected if US economic data is weaker than anticipated.

Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: The euro can also be bought today if the price tests the 1.1127 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1147 and 1.1179 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: The plan is to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1127 (the red line on the chart). The target is 1.1097, where the position will be closed and a long position opened immediately in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move upward from that level. Downward pressure on the pair could return at any time.

Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: The euro can also be sold today if the price tests the 1.1147 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1127 and 1.1097 can then be expected.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line — the estimated price level at which a Take Profit order can be placed or profits can be closed manually, as further gains above this level are considered unlikely.
• Thin red line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line — the estimated price level at which a Take Profit order can be placed or profits can be closed manually, as further declines below this level are considered unlikely.
• MACD indicator — when entering the market, it is important to take the overbought and oversold zones into account.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should exercise considerable caution when deciding when to enter the market. It is generally best to stay out of the market before the release of major fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to limit potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire trading account very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large position sizes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is a fundamentally losing strategy for an intraday trader.