On Monday, the GBP/USD pair continued its upward movement, with no local reasons provided. However, in 2025, the absence of local drivers means little for the market, as there are plenty of fundamental ones. The British pound is likely to continue appreciating this week, as the Federal Reserve is almost guaranteed to cut rates, while the Bank of England is expected to hold steady. Moreover, the next monetary easing in the UK is unlikely to happen anytime soon, while the Fed's September cut may become just the first in an entire series. And if Trump reshapes the FOMC in 2026 as he intends, rates could quickly fall into the 1–2% range.
In the short term, there is an ascending trendline, and until it is broken, there are no grounds to expect a decline. On the daily timeframe, it is clear that the price has corrected to the 38.2% Fibonacci level and is ready to continue the "2025 trend." Trump's tariffs will remain in place at least until November. In the near future, Trump plans to impose additional tariffs on China and India. In addition, he wants the European Union to adopt similar restrictions. As we can see, the trade war may escalate further before year-end, giving the dollar another reason to weaken against its rivals.
On the 5-minute timeframe, two trading signals formed on Monday. Overnight, the price bounced from the 1.3548 level, and by the time the European session opened, it had moved only slightly from that point. Therefore, long positions could have been opened. By the start of the U.S. session, the price reached the 1.3615 level and rebounded from it, forming a sell signal that could also be executed. While it did not bring large profits, it still provided some gains.
COT reports on the British pound show that commercial traders' sentiment has been constantly changing in recent years. The red and blue lines (net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders) cross frequently and generally stay near zero. Right now, they're almost at the same level, which signals roughly equal amounts of long and short positions.
The dollar is still falling due to Trump's policies, so market maker demand for the pound is not so important right now. The trade war will continue, one way or another, for a long time. The Fed will lower rates at least once more within the next year, so dollar demand will keep falling. The latest COT report shows "Non-commercial" closed 1,200 BUY contracts and 700 SELL contracts. So, the net position decreased by 500 contracts during the reporting week.
The pound shot up in 2025, but the cause is clear—Donald Trump's policy. Once that factor is neutralized, the dollar could rally, but no one knows when that will happen. It doesn't really matter whether the net position in the pound rises or falls—the dollar's net position keeps shrinking, usually at a faster pace.
On the hourly chart, GBP/USD is ready to form a new uptrend, which is exactly what it is doing. The fundamental and macroeconomic background remains highly unfavorable for the dollar, so there are still no grounds to expect its medium-term growth. This week, a decline in quotes is theoretically possible, but the fundamental picture already suggests that the dollar is likely to continue falling.
For September 16, we highlight the following important levels: 1.3125, 1.3212, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3420, 1.3525–1.3548, 1.3615, 1.3681, 1.3763, 1.3833, 1.3886. The Senkou Span B line (1.3460) and the Kijun-sen line (1.3556) may also serve as signal sources. Stop Loss orders are recommended to be set at breakeven once the price moves 20 pips in the right direction. Ichimoku lines may shift during the day, which should be considered when identifying trading signals.
On Tuesday, the UK will release reports on unemployment, jobless claims, and wages. In the U.S., industrial production and retail sales are due. All of these reports are roughly equal in importance for traders, but due to their number, they may influence market sentiment throughout the day.
We believe that on Tuesday, the upward movement may continue, as virtually all factors currently support this scenario. The 1.3615 level has been reached, and a breakout above it will open the way toward 1.3681.
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