The price test at 1.1620 coincided with the MACD indicator just starting to move above the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying euros. As a result, the pair rose towards the target level of 1.1656.
The euro grew amid fresh rumors that the USA and Iran reached an agreement to extend the ceasefire for 60 days. If confirmed, this event would mark a significant easing of tensions in the Middle East, which traditionally puts pressure on the dollar as a safe-haven currency.
Next, we have a large set of data from the eurozone countries. The release of unemployment data from Germany, the eurozone's largest economy, will be of primary importance. Any deviation from the forecasts, whether an unexpected decrease or increase, could cause moderate market volatility. A strong report demonstrating the resilience of the German labor market is likely to support the euro. Inflation data, particularly the consumer price index of Germany and Italy, are also under close scrutiny. The inflation rate is a key indicator for the European Central Bank in making decisions on monetary policy. If the CPI exceeds expectations, it could raise expectations of an earlier ECB policy tightening, which, in turn, would strengthen the euro. In aggregate, this data forms a comprehensive picture of the economic health of the eurozone.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario No. 1: Today, buying euros is possible when the price reaches around 1.1657 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1705. I plan to exit the market at 1.1705 and sell euros back, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Expecting the euro to rise can only be done after good data from the eurozone. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy euros today in the case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.1632 at the moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. One can expect a rise to opposite levels of 1.1657 and 1.1705.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1632 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1589, where I intend to exit the market and buy back immediately (expecting a 20-25 pip move in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return only if reports are weak. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its decline from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell euros today if the price tests 1.1657 twice in a row, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.1632 and 1.1589.
Novice Forex traders must be very cautious when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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