Trade Analysis and Trading Tips for the British Pound

The price test of 1.3548 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero line, confirming that the entry point for buying the pound was correct. However, the pair never made a significant upward move.

In the second half of the day, the pound's direction will be determined by the broader market backdrop, as no important US fundamental data is scheduled, leaving the market with little to rely on apart from the G20 meeting. Under these conditions, the pound becomes dependent on external factors and sentiment surrounding the dollar. Since the US currency is supported by the Fed's hawkish stance, pressure on GBP/USD is likely to persist, and without new catalysts, it will be difficult for the pair to reverse its downward trend. In the absence of economic data, volatility is likely to remain low, and a significant move will occur only in response to unexpected rhetoric from the Fed or signals from the G20 meeting.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound when the entry point is reached around 1.3546 (the green line on the chart), with a target of rising toward 1.3568 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3568, I will exit the long position and open a short position in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from the level. Today, the pound can be expected to rise only if US data is weak. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has only just begun rising from it.

Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to buy the pound if the price tests 1.3533 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3546 and 1.3568 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after the 1.3533 level is updated (the red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The sellers' key target will be 1.3515, where I will exit the short position and immediately open a long position in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level. Strong pressure on the pound will return if US data is strong. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has only just begun declining from it.

Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to sell the pound if the price tests 1.3546 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3533 and 1.3515 can be expected.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the expected price at which Take Profit can be set or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the expected price at which Take Profit can be set or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to take the overbought and oversold zones into account.

Important. Beginner Forex traders need to be very cautious when making market-entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire account balance very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.