Oil market declines despite strong inventory data

Yesterday, the price of oil started to decline from local highs in the area above $113 to the level of $108 per barrel. Today, on Thursday, the weakening of the asset continues: the current Brent quote is $107.77 per barrel. The cost of North American WTI oil is trading in the region of $105. 

Oil is under pressure, but the potential for growth remains, as the easing of anti-covid restrictions in China and the high car season in the United States may lead to a jump in demand in the coming months.

Moreover, yesterday's report from the US Department of Energy showed an unexpected reduction in oil reserves in the US by 3.4 million barrels (up to 420.8 million barrels), while analysts predicted an increase of 1.4 million barrels. The reduction occurred despite an increase in production from 11.8 to 11.9 million b/d and a jump in exports by 641 thousand b/d to 3.5 million b/d. 5 million barrels were released from strategic reserves – they were successfully sold by the market. Despite such strong data, oil prices reacted only with a short-term increase, after which they continued to decline.

Gasoline stocks decreased by 4.8 million barrels, which led to a 5.6% drop in the price of gasoline. Distillate stocks, on the contrary, increased by 1.2 million barrels.

The EU's policy towards Russia also has an additional impact on the dynamics of oil prices. EU countries continue to develop a plan to abandon Russian oil, gas and coal. At the moment, the region has almost agreed to impose an embargo on oil from the Russian Federation, but Hungary still refuses to support this ban and the prospects for a compromise are extremely vague at the moment.