JPMorgan forecasts US interest rates to rise above 5%

Chief Executive Officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co. Jamie Dimon believes that US interest rates will continue to rise due to sustained core inflation. Dimon suggests that rates may exceed 5%, since core inflation is still high and is not declining fast enough. 

In total, during 2022, the US Federal Reserve raised rates from almost zero to 4.25-4.5%, which is the maximum in 15 years. According to the estimates of the Fed's leaders, at the end of 2023, the target range of the rate will be at the level of 5-5.25%.

However, market participants generally doubt this forecast and assume that the Fed may be forced to start lowering the rate in the second half of the year. The actions of the US regulator have already helped to slow down the main indicator of inflation (CPI) to 6.5% in December against 7.1% in November. Meanwhile, core inflation (the Core CPI index, which does not take into account food and energy prices) last month was 5.7% against 6% in November.

The slowdown in inflation in recent months, according to JPMorgan, was the result of temporary factors, such as lower oil prices and problems in the Chinese economy due to a new outbreak of coronavirus.