Since the end of February, the Swiss franc has risen by about 4% against the US dollar, which is the best indicator among the G10 currencies. It is worth noting that in recent weeks, traders have begun to give optimistic forecasts regarding the franc, which has not been observed since September 2021. This trend is due to the predicted discrepancy between the monetary policy of the Swiss National Bank and the central banks of Europe and China. A sharp slowdown in economic growth in the eurozone and China may signal that the central banks of the world, including the US Federal Reserve, will switch to easing the monetary policies. Previously, the franc had already shown a 10% strengthening during the Fed and ECB rate cut cycle in 2001-2002. At the beginning of the financial crisis of 2007-2008, it grew by 13%. And when the Fed lowered rates in 2019-2020, the franc rose by about 7%. Thomas Flury, Head of Currency Research at UBS Wealth Management, noted that he expects the Swiss currency to strengthen in the medium and long term due to low price pressure in Switzerland. Moreover, the rhetoric of the country's central bank implies the introduction of measures to combat even small inflation. The franc also remains a haven for investors amid escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and China. In general, analysts predict a gradual strengthening of the Swiss currency by March 2024 by more than 5% against the dollar and more than 4% against the euro. At Tuesday's auction, the dollar exchange rate is 0.9092 francs, the euro exchange rate is 0.9706 francs.
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