Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Euro

The test of 1.0407 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro.

The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index and changes in U.S. consumer spending levels will play a crucial role in determining the dollar's direction in the second half of the day. A steady increase in PCE, reflecting strong consumer behavior, will strengthen the dollar, signaling a healthy economy and the potential for interest rates to remain high. Conversely, a decline in consumer spending could weaken the dollar, indicating slower economic growth and a possible need for monetary easing. Investors will closely monitor these figures to assess the resilience of the U.S. economy and the potential returns on dollar-denominated assets.

Additional volatility may also arise from data on changes in consumer income levels, the U.S. goods trade balance, and the Chicago PMI index. If these figures deviate significantly from expectations, they could act as a market-moving catalyst.

For my intraday strategy, I will focus on the implementation of Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the euro today if the price reaches 1.0409 (green line on the chart), aiming for growth toward 1.0449. At 1.0449, I will exit long positions and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a 30-35 point move downward. Euro growth today will depend on weak U.S. data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning its upward movement.

Scenario #2: Another buying opportunity will arise if the price tests 1.0383 twice while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward, targeting the resistance levels of 1.0409 and 1.0449.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.0383 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0341, where I will exit short positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction, anticipating a 20-25 point rebound. Selling pressure may return after strong U.S. inflation data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its downward movement.

Scenario #2: I will also consider selling the euro if 1.0409 is tested twice, while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a market reversal downward, with a target at 1.0383 and 1.0341.

Chart Legend:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the asset.
• Thick green line – expected price where Take Profit orders or manual profit-taking should be considered, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the asset.
• Thick red line – expected price where Take Profit orders or manual profit-taking should be considered, as further declines below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator – essential for determining overbought and oversold market conditions.

Important: Beginner forex traders should exercise caution when making market entries. Before major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price spikes. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss protection, a trader can quickly deplete their entire deposit, especially when trading large volumes without proper money management.

For successful trading, having a clear trading plan is crucial, as demonstrated in the strategies above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions often lead to losses in intraday trading.