Trade Analysis and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 155.58 price level occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero line, which confirmed a correct entry point for buying the dollar. As a result, the pair rose by more than 30 points.

It is clear that investors' attention will next be focused on the release of the U.S. labor market JOLTS report, which makes it possible to assess the health of the labor market and its impact on inflationary processes. A large number of job openings may signal a shortage of personnel at companies, leading to higher wages and, as a result, rising inflation. Conversely, a reduction in vacant positions may indicate a weakening labor market and lower inflationary pressure.

However, the main driver of dollar growth may be speeches by FOMC representatives Thomas Barkin and Michelle Bowman. Particular attention will be paid to signals regarding the timing of further interest rate cuts and the factors guiding such decisions by the Federal Reserve. Any unexpected statements or changes in tone could trigger volatility in financial markets.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the entry point is reached around 155.95 (green line on the chart), with a growth target at 156.66 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 156.66, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (aiming for a 30–35-point move in the opposite direction from that level). Growth in the pair today can be expected after strong U.S. data.Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 155.54 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 155.95 and 156.66 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after the 155.54 level is broken (red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 154.99 level, where I plan to exit short positions and also immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20–25-point move in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair will return in the case of weak economic data.Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 155.95 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 155.54 and 154.99 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – estimated price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually locked in, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – estimated price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually locked in, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to pay attention to overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders must be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.