The GBP/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Monday, resuming the trend on the previous Friday. Overall, we believe that without a new and serious escalation of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, the dollar has little to rely on. In recent months, we have consistently pointed out that the dollar has one trump card, but that card has an expiration date. Geopolitics indeed triggered a two-month rise in the U.S. dollar, as investors fled the burning Middle East. Everyone was protecting their assets, which led to the rise of the American dollar, which, in some situations, can still be seen as a "safe haven."

However, two months have passed, and the market has begun to recall all the reasons the U.S. dollar fell throughout 2025 and into the beginning of 2026. The war in the Middle East is currently frozen, with the Strait of Hormuz being blocked for the third time. Consequently, markets have quickly adapted to the new energy and geopolitical reality, leaving the dollar without a reason to grow. Thus, for the fourth consecutive week, the market has been actively selling the U.S. currency.

Moreover, the market cannot ignore that energy prices are at least 1.5 times higher and may continue their ascent into the stratosphere in 2026. The sole culprit for this is Donald Trump. His domestic and trade policies led to the situation in 2025, where only the lazy did not sell the dollar. In 2026, Trump demonstrated to the world that his foreign policy is as destructive as his trade and domestic policies. Traders have simply no choice but to sell the troubled U.S. dollar, as there is nothing safe about it anymore. The U.S. economy is slowing, the energy crisis is not sparing America (even with complete energy independence), the U.S. labor market remains in turmoil, and Trump's policies remain the main reason foreign investors and traders often avoid dealing with the U.S.

Therefore, in the current circumstances, it is unnecessary to possess analytical talent to predict the further decline of the U.S. dollar. To be honest, we did not expect its growth in February-March, but neither could a full-scale war in the Middle East have been predicted. If it weren't for the war with Iran, the dollar would likely have already broken its four-year lows established earlier this year. Thus, thanks to the war, the dollar managed to slightly improve its position, but fundamentally, nothing has changed for it. It still lacks any trump cards to encourage traders and investors to buy it. Moreover, Trump continues to believe that the cheaper the dollar is, the more goods, services, and energy resources the US will sell abroad. Therefore, it is clear that no one in the White House is worried about the fall of the American currency, nor will anyone be attempting to save it.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days is 72 pips, which is considered "average" for this currency pair. On Tuesday, April 28, we expect the pair to trade within a range bounded by 1.3478 and 1.3622. The upper channel of the linear regression is directed downward, indicating a bearish trend. The CCI indicator has entered the overbought territory and has formed a "bearish" divergence, which provided a warning about a potential downward pullback in advance.

Nearest Support Levels:

• S1 – 1.3489
• S2 – 1.3428
• S3 – 1.3367

Nearest Resistance Levels:

• R1 – 1.3550
• R2 – 1.3611
• R3 – 1.3672

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair continues its recovery after two "months of geopolitics." Trump's policies will continue to put pressure on the U.S. economy, so we do not expect the U.S. dollar to grow in 2026. Therefore, long positions with a target of 1.3916 and above remain relevant as long as the price is above the moving average. If the price is below the moving average line, short positions can be considered with targets of 1.3478 and 1.3428 based on technical grounds. In recent weeks, the British currency has recovered, while the geopolitical factor has lost its influence on the market.

Explanations of Illustrations:

Linear regression channels help to define the current trend. If both are directed in the same way, it means the trend is currently strong;

The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should currently be conducted;

Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections;

Volatility levels (red lines) indicate the probable price channel in which the pair will operate over the next day, based on current volatility readings;

The CCI indicator – its entrance into the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction may be approaching.