Analysis of Trades and Trading Advice for the Euro

The test of the 1.1562 price level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero line, confirming the validity of the entry point for a short position on the euro. As a result, the pair declined by 20 points.

Expectations of a Fed rate hike this Wednesday continue to support demand for the dollar, and judging by the latest data, the committee really has no choice but to proceed with the first rate hike in three years. This step, despite Donald Trump's position, continues to support demand for the dollar and increases market uncertainty.

The lack of U.S. economic data in the second half of today's session creates technical conditions for a rebound following the dollar's morning strengthening, and risk assets will likely take advantage of this for a modest recovery. Nevertheless, the fundamental support for the dollar remains strong. For the euro, an additional factor is the growing division within the Fed committee. While some members favor more decisive action, others remain cautious, and in my view, this divergence within the regulator will keep traders on alert. In such an environment, any correction in EUR/USD is likely to remain weak and short-lived, as the overall market environment continues to favor the dollar.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, the euro can be bought when the price reaches around 1.1554 (the green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 1.1586. At 1.1586, I plan to exit the market and also open a short position on the euro, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. Any rise in the euro today should be viewed only as a correction. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1535 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1554 and 1.1586 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1535 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1505, where I plan to exit the market and immediately open a long position in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move in the opposite direction from the level. Downward pressure on the pair may return at any time. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1554 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1535 and 1.1505 can be expected.

What Is Shown on the Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the estimated price at which Take Profit can be placed or profit can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the estimated price at which Take Profit can be placed or profit can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to take the overbought and oversold areas into account.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire trading account very quickly, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making trading decisions spontaneously based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.