The main events by the morning: February 13

• The UK economy grew by 0.1% in the fourth quarter. This exceeded forecasts for a 0.1% reduction. Growth was zero in the third quarter. The Bank of England lowered its base rate to 4.5% amid weak growth and lower inflation. Inflation is expected to increase to 3.7% by the end of 2025, but a return to the 2% target is projected by 2027. The GDP growth forecast for 2023 has been lowered to 0.75%.

• In January, the US budget deficit increased by $128.64 billion, while in December it increased by $86.732 billion. Analysts had expected an increase of $88.1 billion. In the first third of the fiscal year, the deficit reached a record $840 billion due to increased spending on healthcare, social security, payments to veterans and interest on the national debt.

• After the conversation with Putin, Trump hinted at the possibility of a meeting between the leaders of the two countries. He noted that a personal meeting with the Russian president could take place «in the not too distant future.» However, the exact date has not yet been determined. Trump also stated that he did not consider it appropriate for Ukraine to join NATO. 

• OPEC adjusted its forecast for non-OPEC+ oil production for 2025 to 54.21 million barrels per day from the previous 54.28 million. In 2024, production amounted to 53.2 million, and in 2026 it is expected to increase to 55.21 million. The forecast of global demand has been maintained: in 2025 it will reach 105.2 million barrels per day, compared with 103.75 million in 2024, and in 2026 it will grow to 106.63 million.

• Trump allowed American businessmen to bribe foreign officials. He signed a decree temporarily suspending the Law on Combating Corruption Abroad, which has been in force for almost 50 years. The Ministry of Justice has been instructed to review cases related to the law and prepare new instructions in 180 days. The decision is explained by the desire to strengthen the position of American companies in the global market and increase their competitiveness.