Five events that will determine the dynamics of the markets this week

The coming week promises to be eventful: investors' attention will be focused on litigation over US tariffs, fresh data on employment and business activity, the publication of the Fed's Beige Book, as well as reports from Broadcom and Salesforce.

1. Legal battles over Trump's tariffs

The US tariffs, introduced at the initiative of Donald Trump, have faced legal challenges. The Appeals Court last week declared the measures unconstitutional, leaving the White House until mid-October to file an appeal to the Supreme Court. Experts believe that the Trump administration is counting on the support of the conservative majority in the highest court. ING analysts warn that if the United States has to return the received tariff revenues, this may put additional pressure on the government bond market.

2. The labor market is the main indicator

The key event of the week is Friday's report on employment in the US non–agricultural sector. Weak salary statistics last month reinforced expectations of a Fed rate cut in September.

The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is estimated by CME FedWatch at more than 87%. The forecast for new jobs in August is 74 thousand, which is close to the July figure (73 thousand). At the same time, strong downward revisions to the data have already provoked sharp criticism from Trump and personnel changes at the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

3. ISM indexes: a test of business activity

In addition to employment, markets are waiting for the publication of the August ISM indices.

• The manufacturing PMI is forecast at 48.9 (against 48.0 a month earlier), indicating a contraction in the sector for the fifth month in a row.

• The service PMI may rise to 50.5 from 50.1, remaining in the stagnation zone.

The US industry accounts for just over 10% of GDP, but it is there that the decline in employment has reached a five-year low. The service sector, which provides two thirds of the economy, is also showing signs of slowing down.

4. The Fed's Beige Book

An updated Beige Book will be released on Wednesday, one of the last economic surveys before the Fed meeting on September 16-17. In the July version, it was noted that price pressures will remain high, and uncertainty in tariff policy is holding back business activity and forcing companies to postpone personnel decisions. A new report will show how much the risks of an economic slowdown have increased by the end of the summer.

5. Corporate Reports: Broadcom and Salesforce

On the corporate front, the focus is on the quarterly reports from Broadcom and Salesforce. Investors are waiting for signals from Broadcom about the prospects for demand for AI chips. After Nvidia's disappointing forecast, concerns about overheating of the «AI boom» have intensified, and the market is waiting for confirmation or refutation of these concerns. The Salesforce report will be an important test for the software sector, where concerns about possible risks from rapidly developing AI solutions are increasingly being voiced.