On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Monday rose to the resistance level of 1.3526–1.3539, rebounded from it, and then declined to the 1.3437–1.3470 level. At the moment, the pound is trading between these two zones, hinting at sideways movement. A consolidation below the 1.3437–1.3470 level would increase the likelihood of further decline toward the next support level at 1.3352–1.3362. A consolidation above the 1.3526–1.3539 level would suggest the end of the bearish trend.

The wave situation remains bearish. The last completed upward wave failed to break the previous peak, while the last downward wave broke the previous low. To reverse the trend back to bullish, the pair needs to consolidate above the latest peak at 1.3730 or form two consecutive bullish waves. The news background for the pound has been weak in recent months, but the U.S. news backdrop has also rarely pleased traders. Recently, the pound has been on a "losing streak," yet Donald Trump regularly supports the bulls.

On Monday, the news background had no impact on traders. The Iranian issue remains the main topic of discussion in the market, so even events such as the U.S. Supreme Court canceling Trump's tariffs and the U.S. president reimposing new tariffs were largely ignored. The dollar avoided a well-deserved decline for one reason — the market fears a full-scale war between the United States and Iran and uses the dollar as a safe-haven asset. If last summer traders believed that Trump would limit himself to strikes on nuclear facilities, now the discussion is about regime change in Iran. Tehran has no intention of surrendering without a fight. Iran has mobilized its army and is preparing to repel an attack. All indications suggest that the conflict could be large-scale, bloody, and prolonged. This is what traders fear, and this is what is driving the dollar higher. There will be no significant news background on Tuesday, and it is crucial for the pound to remain at least within the sideways channel of 1.3437–1.3526.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair declined to the support level of 1.3369–1.3435, rebounded from it, and reversed in favor of the pound. A growth process has begun but remains within the descending trend channel. Therefore, strong growth can only be expected after a breakout above the channel. In that case, bullish traders will once again target the Fibonacci level of 127.2% at 1.3795. No emerging divergences are observed in any indicators today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" category of traders became slightly less bullish over the past reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 6,358, while short positions increased by 10,236. The gap between long and short positions now stands at approximately 82,000 versus 124,000. In recent months, bears have more often dominated, although the situation with euro contracts is directly opposite. I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend for the pound under any circumstances.

In my view, the pound still appears less "risky" than the dollar — and this is its main advantage. In the short term, the U.S. currency may occasionally see demand in the market, but not in the long term. Donald Trump's policies have led to a sharp decline in the labor market, and the Federal Reserve is forced to ease monetary policy to stimulate job creation. U.S. military aggression and the trade war also do not add optimism for dollar bulls.

News Calendar for the U.S. and the U.K.:

U.S. – ADP Employment Change (weekly) (13:00–15:00 UTC).

On February 24, the economic calendar contains only one, not particularly significant entry. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Tuesday will be extremely weak or absent.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Selling was possible after a rebound from the 1.3526–1.3539 zone on the hourly chart, targeting 1.3437–1.3470. The target was reached. New selling positions may be opened after a close below the 1.3437–1.3470 level, targeting 1.3362. Buying positions today can be opened after a rebound from the 1.3437–1.3470 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.3526–1.3539 and 1.3595.

Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.3470–1.3010 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.