Monday, October 2 The first trading day of October will be accompanied by the publication of the final data on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector – for almost all countries. However, these data will not have any visible impact on the market, as they should only confirm preliminary estimates. Tuesday, October 3 The main significant event on Tuesday will be the meeting of the Board of the Reserve Bank of Australia, during which the refinancing rate is likely to remain unchanged at 4.1%. And given that inflation in Australia is slowing down quite quickly, such a decision may mean that the regulator is preparing for the imminent start of monetary policy easing. And this will have a negative impact on the Australian dollar. Wednesday, October 4 On Wednesday, the final data on the index of business activity in the service sector, as well as the composite index, are published. But as in the case of the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector, this will not affect the market in any way. But the producer price index in the eurozone may put pressure on the exchange rate of the European currency. The fact is that the rate of decline in producer prices may accelerate from -7.6% to -11.6%. And this means that inflation will continue to decline, and quite quickly. This will finally convince market participants that the European Central Bank will start lowering its interest rates in the foreseeable future. Thursday, October 5 On Thursday, the macroeconomic calendar is almost empty, except for the publication of data on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States. They are unlikely to have any effect on the market, since the changes are likely to be purely symbolic. Friday, October 6 But on Friday, an important report of the US Department of Labor Non-Farm payrolls is published, the content of which may well change the current market situation. Experts note that with the stability of the unemployment rate outside agriculture, only 150 thousand new jobs should be created. And this indicates an ever-increasing likelihood of unemployment rising in the near future. Because of this, the dollar will be under noticeable pressure at the end of the week.
PAUTAN SEGERA
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