Gold, which ended trading at a historic high on Thursday, continues to rise on Monday amid expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. On Friday, due to Easter, the exchanges of the United States and many European countries were closed. The price of June gold contracts at the close of trading on the New York Comex exchange on Thursday was $2,238.4 per ounce. On Monday, the futures price rose 1.8% to reach $2,286.35. In March, the price of gold increased by 8.9%, and for the entire first quarter – by 8%. Analysts note that the unprecedented rally in gold was caused by softer inflation data in the United States, which increased expectations of a Fed interest rate cut in June. The consumer price index (PCE) in the United States in February increased by 0.3% compared to the previous month, which was lower than analysts' expectations, who predicted an inflation rate of 0.4%. Markets estimate the probability of a Fed base rate cut in June at about 70%, and also expect that by the end of 2024 it will decrease by 75 basis points from the current level of 5.25-5.5% per annum. As you know, lower interest rates create a favorable environment for gold, increasing its attractiveness as an investment asset. Gold investors act with confidence that the Fed will prefer to lower interest rates regardless of whether inflation reaches the target level.
PAUTAN SEGERA
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