The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade with low volatility and a complete reluctance to move in any direction on Wednesday. Recall that the US inflation report was published yesterday, which has a direct impact on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Due to inflation in the US accelerating three months ago, the market began to anticipate a tightening of monetary policy by the Fed. Thus, yet another rise in inflation in America could have prompted a new rally for the dollar. If it weren't for one "but." The market once again ignored this important macroeconomic report. It is worth noting that the actual figure matched the forecasts perfectly, so there was essentially nothing to react to. However, the acceleration in inflation to 4.2% significantly increases the likelihood of a Fed rate hike in 2026. Also, yesterday, the truce between Iran and the US was once again broken, and Donald Trump virtually acknowledged the breakdown of negotiations. But the market did not find it necessary to react to this news either.
In the 5-minute timeframe, no trading signals were formed on Wednesday. Several times, the price approached the 1.1527-1.1531 area but failed to act. Earlier this morning, the pair reacted to and bounced off the specified area, allowing, or soon allowing, the opening of long positions.
On the hourly timeframe, the flat has concluded, and a downward trend has resumed after three weeks of stagnation, but any further US dollar growth will be entirely dependent on developments in geopolitical events. If full-scale war resumes in the Middle East, the dollar will continue to rise. If Tehran and Washington return to the negotiating table, this will support riskier currencies.
On Thursday, novice traders can open short positions targeting 1.1455-1.1474 if the price breaks below the 1.1527-1.1531 area. Long positions can be considered on a bounce from the 1.1527-1.1531 area, with targets at 1.1584-1.1594.
On the 5-minute timeframe, the following levels should be considered: 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1584-1.1594, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1830-1.1837, 1.1899-1.1908. On Thursday, the European Central Bank meeting will take place in the European Union, the interest rate decision will be announced, and Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech. However, we have no confidence that the market will not ignore this event since the ECB's intention to raise interest rates has been known for over a week.
Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.
Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.
Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are keys to success in trading over the long term.
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