Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Euro

The price test at 1.1486 coincided with a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy euros.

The Federal Reserve's hawkish policy threatens to further strengthen the U.S. dollar and weaken the euro. Yesterday, the dollar demonstrated the largest two-day gain against the euro in the last three months, and it seems that the pressure will continue today. If the data from Germany disappoints, the euro risks falling even further.

Specifically, investors' attention will focus on the producer price index, a key indicator of inflationary pressure in the economy. Preliminary forecasts and analytical reviews suggest that the released figures will likely show a slower acceleration in the price growth of German producers. This, in turn, could exert additional pressure on the euro, preventing it from recovering its positions against the U.S. dollar. However, high inflation, even at the producer level, will likely persist, requiring more active adjustments from the European Central Bank.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to buy euros today at a price around 1.1456 (green line on the chart), with a target for growth to 1.1512. At point 1.1512, I intend to exit the market and also sell euros in the opposite direction, anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Expectations for the euro to rise today can only be based on strong Eurozone data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting its upward movement from there.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.1427, with the MACD indicator in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected towards the opposite levels of 1.1456 and 1.1512.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1427 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1378, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy back in the opposite direction, anticipating a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level. Pressure on the pair today will only return if very weak data are released. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting its downward movement from there.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.1456, with the MACD indicator in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline can be expected towards the opposite levels of 1.1427 and 1.1378.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;

Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;

Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.