Economic calendar | January 16 – 20

Monday, January 16

The beginning of a new trading week is again accompanied by a completely empty macroeconomic calendar, since the United States has a day off on the occasion of the celebration of Martin Luther King Day. Therefore, the market will simply stand still.

Tuesday, January 17 

The data on the labor market in the UK published on Tuesday will also have no effect on the dynamics of the market, since the unemployment rate should remain unchanged. 

But the Canadian dollar is likely to be under pressure due to a slowdown in consumer price growth from 6.8% to 6.4%. Which, in turn, should be the reason for a slowdown in the growth of interest rates of the Bank of Canada.

Wednesday, January 18

The main event of Wednesday will be a meeting of the Board of the Bank of Japan. However, this event again will not affect investor sentiment in any way, since the Japanese regulator will once again leave all the parameters of monetary policy unchanged. Nevertheless, the yen is likely to lose its position, but due to industrial production, the growth of which by 3.8% should be replaced by a decline of 1.3%. 

The British pound will also lose its position, but already due to a slowdown in inflation from 10.7% to 10.5%. Although such a decrease in the growth rate of consumer prices does not guarantee a slowdown in the growth of interest rates of the Bank of England, it still creates prerequisites for this, which will be the reason for the weakening of the British currency. 

The single European currency will also be under pressure in the middle of the week – after the release of inflation data in the eurozone. Inflation may decrease from 10.1% to 9.2%. And this leaves no doubt that the European Central Bank will begin to approach the issue of raising the refinancing rate somewhat more carefully. 

And only the US dollar will be able to demonstrate a slight increase on Wednesday. Despite the fact that the growth rate of retail sales is likely to slow down from 6.5% to 5.0%. The growth rate of industrial production should also slow down – from 2.5% to 1.8%. 

And against this background, few people will pay attention to Canadian statistics, since they are published simultaneously with data from the United States, which are much more important. Nevertheless, analysts expect that the growth rate of producer prices in Canada will slow down from 9.7% to 9.2%.

Thursday, January 19

The most significant publication on Thursday is the data on the labor market in Australia. However, they will not be able to influence the situation in any way due to the fact that the unemployment rate should remain unchanged. 

Friday, January 20

At the end of the week, the Japanese yen may well receive an excellent stimulus for growth due to inflation, which should rise from 3.8% to 4.0%. The bottom line is that the steady rise in inflation sooner or later should force the Bank of Japan to finally start raising the refinancing rate. However, this will happen when other world central banks at least begin to reduce the growth rate of their interest rates. 

The pound will also be able to show some growth due to the slowdown in the decline in retail sales from -5.9% to -4.4%. 

But the Canadian dollar will lose its position, and the reason will also be retail sales data: the growth rate should slow down from 6.4% to 5.3%. Analysts note that the overall picture is better than in the United Kingdom, but the dynamics are clearly worse.