Trade wars and their consequences: Investors are sounding the alarm

The trade war is once again causing the greatest concern among investors, according to a February survey conducted by Bank of America among portfolio managers. As part of the study, 205 representatives of funds controlling assets totaling $485 billion were interviewed. 

According to the results, 39% of respondents consider the global trade war to be a key threat to the global economy in the coming year. This indicator increased by 11 percentage points in a month, exceeding December's 37%. The risk of inflation and a Fed rate hike, which was leading in January, now ranks second with a score of 31%.

The changes in investor sentiment are related to Donald Trump's actions aimed at reforming supply chains. Since February 1, duties have been imposed on goods from Mexico (25%), Canada (25%) and China (10%). At the same time, Mexico and Canada achieved a postponement, and China responded in kind by imposing duties on American coal, oil, LNG, agricultural machinery and automobiles.

Investors are less likely to actively reduce the Fed rate. In January, 13% of respondents expected three declines, but in February their share fell to 4%. At the same time, forecasts for two rate cuts increased from 39% to 46%.