Gold (XAU/USD) has been declining for a third consecutive session and is trading below the psychologically significant $4,000 level on Wednesday. The precious metal remains near Tuesday's low, its weakest level since November 2025. Additional pressure comes from the stronger U.S. dollar, supported by uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Iran negotiations and expectations of tighter Federal Reserve monetary policy. Together, these factors suggest that gold prices remain vulnerable to further declines.

On Tuesday, U.S. representatives Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff arrived in Qatar to discuss the implementation of the preliminary agreements aimed at ending the conflict involving Iran. However, Iranian officials denied reports of an upcoming meeting with U.S. envoys, reducing hopes for a lasting peace agreement and maintaining the geopolitical risk premium. Tensions were further reinforced by developments in the Strait of Hormuz, which heightened inflation concerns. Combined with the resilience of the U.S. labor market, these factors continue to support expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve and strengthen demand for the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset.

Tuesday's JOLTS report showed that U.S. job openings increased to 7.594 million in May, the highest level in the past two years. At the same time, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose to 91.2 in June from 90.6 in the previous month. Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack also indicated that further interest rate hikes remain possible if inflationary pressures persist. According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, the probability of additional Federal Reserve policy tightening before the end of the year exceeds 80%. These expectations continue to strengthen the U.S. dollar and, consequently, create a negative backdrop for gold in the short term.

At the same time, market participants may remain cautious ahead of Kevin Warsh's speech at the European Central Bank (ECB) Forum in Sintra. Additional volatility in both the U.S. dollar and XAU/USD on Wednesday may come from key U.S. macroeconomic releases, including the ADP Employment Report and the ISM Manufacturing PMI. Looking ahead, the main event will be Thursday's publication of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Nevertheless, the current fundamental backdrop continues to favor further downside for gold. Any corrective rebounds are likely to remain limited and may attract renewed selling interest.

From a technical perspective, gold is trading well below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the four-hour chart, keeping the short-term outlook bearish. The MACD remains in negative territory, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is drifting toward the 50 level. Together, these signals suggest limited upside potential. Initial resistance is provided by the 100-period SMA near $4,050, followed by the psychological $4,100 level and another resistance level near $4,170. A decisive break and consolidation above this level would be required to weaken the current bearish trend. Initial support is located in the $3,940-$3,960 level, corresponding to this year's low. A break below this zone could signal a further decline within the current consolidation phase.