The American labour market: optimism and anxiety

The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, suggesting that concerns about a worsening labour market situation were exaggerated. According to the Ministry of Labour, the number of initial applications for benefits decreased by 17 thousand to 233 thousand, which was the largest drop in the last 11 months. Experts had expected a more modest decline.

Despite the positive dynamics, the indicator remains above the average level of the current year. The average number of applications over the past four weeks has increased to 240.75 thousand, reaching an almost one-year high. The increase in the number of applications, which began in June, is partly due to temporary shutdowns of automobile plants and the effects of Hurricane Beryl in Texas.

Overall, the number of layoffs remains low, confirming data on a record low level of layoffs in June. However, the pace of growth in the labour market is slowing due to less aggressive hiring caused by the Fed's interest rate hike.

The Fed has kept the interest rate, but intends to lower it in September. Nevertheless, non-agricultural employment data for July showed a noticeable slowdown in job growth and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, which raised concerns about a possible deterioration in the labour market situation.